Since the future is continuous with the present and the past, you can, and probably will, get there from here. And that's why most projections and predictions are based on extrapolating from the past, through the present, into a likely future. Prophecies, however, are another kettle of fish. Prophets seem to see the future direct, as though past, present, and future — the whole ball of wax — existed all at once and could be viewed at any (or every) point, from some highly privileged vantage. Which kind of makes sense, if you're willing to allow the possibility that the Other Side (the spiritual world) exists outside the spacetime bounds of this universe. If it does, and you're there, then you might be able to enter, or at least remotely view, this world at any point in its history.

The gift of prophecy is vouchsafed to only a very few (and not nearly so many as claim it), so we may have to fall back on mere prediction as we attempt to suss out our near-term future. One way that we can hedge our bets is to project a range of likely futures, rather than trying to narrow it to just one. (This is a method made popular by the futurist Peter Schwartz.)

Let's try it. This will be a seat-of-the-pants effort — no computer modeling, not even much in the way of verifiable assumptions. Still, it might be revealing.

Let's start with those present trends that we are confident will continue, and thus be shared by all of our alternative futures. Here are some of them:

• World population will continue to expand.
• Oil will grow more scarce, and the price will rise.
• The use of other key natural resources will proceed toward shortages, if not exhaustion.
• Global warming will accelerate.
• Pollution and environmental deterioration will worsen.
• The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will continue.
• The above factors, and others, will exacerbate political and economic tensions and instability at all levels of society; and warfare, terrorism, and random violence will increase.
• The corpolitical rulers of society will cling very tightly to their perches on top of the heap, smothering and pooping on fundamental change when they can and massaging and spinning it when they must.

Now you may not agree that all of the above are givens, but hang with me for a minute.

What's left? What could vary wildly, and be big enough to matter? Not much, it seems to me. The above trends amount to a global freight train, about to go over a cliff. The train might be going 100 mph, it might be going 120; it might be speeding up or slowing down; but the chances of turning it quickly and strongly enough to avert disaster are slim to nil.

There's divine intervention, of course: we can hope and pray that God and/or His Angels (and/or His Aliens) will step in. Maybe, maybe not. Certainly, hundreds of millions of people, from fundamentalists to New Agers, think that's what will happen. Personally, I think Spirit is very much in play here — in fact I think it's really about the only winnable game in town — but I don't believe that God (or whoever the dealer is at this table) is going to give us a free ride. No checking, no bluffing, we're going to have to play our hands straight up.

But wild cards? Yeah, I guess we can still hope for a joker on the final draw.

Next: Prophets and Visionaries